Herd Immunity

The Coronavirus has been killing Americans for the last half a year. The United States has the worst outbreak in the world with over 6,100,000 people infected and 186,000 dead. In the next 30 days, infections are forecast to climb to 7,360,000 and deaths to 206,000.

Another way to visualize the enormity of this disaster is by comparisons.

Viet Nam War, 11 years, total killed and missing 60,000.
Coronavirus, 6 months, 186,000 dead, 3 times more.

9/11, one day 3,000 dead, plus at least 3000 collateral deaths since then. Total 6,000+.
Coronavirus 31 times more.

Automobile deaths, 2019, 38,800, reduction of 2% from 2018.
Coronavirus, 4.7 times more.
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War on Terror, 19 years, currently 7000, confirmed by US Central Command.
Coronavirus, 6 months, 26 times more.   

Hospitalizations

Currently there are 894,000 non-ICU coronavirus patients. They make up 15% of the non-ICU population in the US. Current national non-ICU capacity is at 109%. 

Now there are 298,000 ICU coronavirus patients. National ICU capacity is at 325%.

The coronavirus is pushing our health system well beyond its limits. What happens when a new surge of the virus comes in a few weeks or flu season starts?

It is Going to Get Worse

It is about to get much worse due to Trump’s decision to experiment with herd immunity. Trump understands this. To make certain that the public does not know the extent of this catastrophe, he has ordered that testing be reduced and access to information about the pandemic, limited even further than it is has been.

This is already apparent on the web page United States COVID-19 Statistics which provides authoritative information about the coronavirus. In the past 2 days, the graphs for Testing have gone blank. The government is no longer supplying that data. Without it there is no way to get a sense of the scope of infections or where hot spots are occurring. Most importantly, it is now impossible to determine how virulent the virus is. Does it kill 1%, 2% or 5% of those infected?

Herd Immunity

The idea behind herd immunity is that a group of animals develop a collective natural resistance to a disease after a certain percentage of them have been exposed, survived, and developed antibodies that protect them from re-infection. The higher number of immune members the more difficult it is for the disease to spread, and the not immune members are less likely to get sick. This works provided the disease spreads slowly, allowing the survivor’s immunity to act as a barrier to further infections.

Animals protect themselves from disease through social behavior. They detect and avoid the sick, isolating the disease and limiting its ability to spread. Again, this only works if the disease spreads slowly. If the illness spreads without symptoms, the animals continue with their typical behaviors and an epidemic ensues. Herd immunity fails. It is important to note, that the coronavirus spreads quickly and, in many cases, without symptoms.

In a nutshell, herd immunity works by isolating the vulnerable using the survivors and dead as shields.

Herd Immunity Will Not Work

Around the world and here in the US there are cases of re-infection, with the number growing. The Coronavirus is not stable. At first, it was thought that the virus was a single strain, but it is not. It mutates at an alarming rate and, in the time that it has been spreading, it has changed repeatedly. At the outset, here in the US, the virus appeared on both coasts almost simultaneously. One arriving from Asia and the other from Europe. They were genetically different. In the time that the virus left China and spread around the world before arriving here, it had mutated several times.

Viral Russian Roulette

When a virus mutates its characteristics change. A virus can collect genetic material from its surroundings. Different types of virus can exchange traits, such as drug resistance. The virus can become less infectious or more, less deadly, or more. Mutation is a form of Russian roulette. We are familiar with the flu and how every year vaccines must change to meet the threats of that year’s mix of old and new flu strains.

Herd immunity does not protect against mutations. The herd must go through the same process of illness and death, as it did before, to develop a herd resistance to the new disease.

In addition, there is the question, what type of immunity can you develop with the coronavirus? The polio vaccine provides a lifetime immunity. But with tetanus the immunity lasts about 10 years before a booster vaccination is needed. Flu vaccines must be updated every year. The growing number of re-infections may indicate that the virus’s immunity is short-lived.

No Geographical Separation

Mountains, rivers, and oceans no longer separate us. Distance and geography no longer provide natural barriers that provide defensive isolation. Since the collapse of the shelter at home regulations, Americans have gone back to doing what humans love to do, getting up close and personal. Spring Break and Sturgis are examples of people going thousands of miles to gather and enjoy each other’s company.

This socialization, along with the refusal to wear masks and social distance, has led to a huge growth of infections and deaths. When the virus first came to the US, in February, it spread rapidly. State governments scrambled to find a way to combat it. By mid-April daily infections averaged 29,000 with deaths 2,600. Many states issued shelter at home orders. Within a couple of weeks, the rapidly rising rates plateaued and began to come down. Herd social behavior worked.

In mid-June, states began relaxing their orders. By mid-July, two weeks after the 4^th of July, daily infections had risen 67,000 with deaths 900. Since then daily infections appear to have plateaued again, this time at 41,000 with deaths 860.

Long-term Effects

After a disease has swept through a herd, the survivors continue following their instinctive behaviors. Any animals that were weakened or impaired by the disease still must keep up with the herd for social benefits and safety from predators. If they cannot, they will die. For herd animals, the long-term effects of a disease are short-term.

As the coronavirus has burned through America, it has become apparent that it is not like the flu. For many, recovery can take months and during that time the patient requires care and medical attention. Worse, long-term, or permanently debilitating conditions may be the virus’s legacy. Here too, medical treatment and therapy may be required. This places an added demand on our healthcare system.

Humans have a natural inclination not to march on and allow our ill and infirm to fall by the wayside to perish. Or, at least not until recently.  

Why Shelter at Home, Masks and Social Distancing?

The purpose of sheltering at home and the other safety practices is not to prevent the wide spread of the illness but rather slow its spread so that our health system will not be overwhelmed and unable to properly care for the people hospitalized. In addition, sheltering, masks, and distancing, gives nursing and retirement facilities the ability to limit the potential for the virus to spread through their vulnerable populations. These behaviors are intended to keep the rate of infection at a level where the sick can receive the best care which increases their rate of survival and reduces the long-term effects during and after recovery.

Effective healthcare requires that the doctors, nurses, social workers, and everyone else providing care, be adequately protected, rested, and mentally resilient. We can see that our healthcare system is being pushed to the breaking point. Our front-line defenders are battered. Many have gotten ill themselves and 1079 have died. The emotional toll of being surrounded by suffering and death is immense. For many PTSD is the price. These people are genuine heroes and they are exhausted. They need our help.

This Disaster Is Man Made

This pandemic did not need to happen. In 2016 during the transition between the Obama and Trump administrations, President Obama gave Trump the “Playbook For Early Response To High Consequence Emerging Infectious Disease Threats and Biological Incidents” which had been created by the National Security Council. It was ignored. When the pandemic reached the US, questions about the playbook arose, but Trump and Mitch McConnell claimed that no such document existed.

Then, in 2018, as a cost saving measure, Trump through John Bolton, removed the senior director of the NSC’s Global Health and Bio-defense Team, who was responsible for countering pandemics. They then reorganized (disbanded) the team and removed a homeland security advisor who had been urging strong defenses against bio-warfare and infectious diseases. These positions and functions remain empty today. Because of this there was neither the organization nor expertise in place to combat the coronavirus when it arrived.

From the start, the federal government, controlled by Trump and the Republican Party, have done little to protect us from the scourge of the virus. Indeed, often Trump and his administration have worked at odds to our well-being. Unwilling to use the legal powers of the federal government to organize a coherent nation-wide response to the disease, individual states have been left to fend for themselves. A major obstacle to states efforts to combat the virus is that many states are controlled by Republican governments who follow the direction of Trump and neglect the health of their citizens. Also, Trump and his administration have both downplayed the severity of the pandemic and promoted dangerous behaviors and unproven quick fixes that have killed people. Currently he is pushing for herd immunity, a stand back and do-nothing approach, and promising a vaccine within two months, which is impossible if sound scientific and medical procedures are followed.

To make matters worse, Trump blocked the free flow of information that, if available, could have reduced the severity of the contagion, saving tens of thousands of lives. Trump’s actions have spread misery and grief across the US, torn our social fabric to pieces, and devastated our economy. He has reduced us to the level of a third-world country.  

A Terrifying New Reality

In the last two days, information about Trump’s psychological make up has come to light and it is terrifying. Reports are surfacing concerning Trump’s inability to understand or express certain basic human emotions such as altruism, empathy or sympathy. He has demeaned veterans and our war dead, calling them losers and suckers. He has expressed his mystification at why anyone would be a public servant without a rich reward or would sacrifice themselves for the common good.

People mean nothing to Trump. We are objects to be moved and sacrificed for his own good. This explains his criminal neglect during this crisis. It also clarifies his attitudes toward democracy, law and order, and we the American People. Trump and those that enable him are a real danger to our nation and to each of us as individuals. Trump has no loyalty and everyone of us is expendable.

What to Do?

It is simple and it is hard. We must regain our moral balance. We are not chess pieces on a checkered board. We do hold our destiny in our hands. How we react to the coronavirus is a model for how we approach the rest of our challenges. We can embrace self-discipline and refrain from activities that we naturally want to do. It is not someone else telling us what to do. It is us deciding to respect ourselves and others and doing the right thing.

We are not alone. We are members of the American family with 330,000,000 relatives. We help each other, we respect each other, and we sacrifice for each other.

Masks and social distancing are a start. We can choose to avoid gatherings where masks and distancing are not observed. We show respect towards our families and friends and act in ways that do not put them at risk. If another shelter at home order is necessary, we can observe it to honor everyone around us.

We can stay informed through credible sources that are fact-based, scientifically accurate.

We can say NO to coldblooded schemes that nonchalantly discard the lives of thousands of members of our American family.

We can remember that sacrificing our comfort for others is noble and honorable. These may seem to be antiquated values, but they enhance our lives in unique ways. Through them we build character and elevate our spirits. We become better people than we were before.

Finally, we can engage in the struggle to make certain that our government treats all of us with respect. That means organizing a real national response to fighting the virus and not willing sacrificing more lives. It means that the necessary financial resources are provided to each American to help all of us get through this crisis without loosing homes or jobs. It means that we protect our right to vote and ensure that no one is excluded. It means that we respect and honor the promise of our United States and that we do all that we can to remove Trump and his supporters from every elected office in the nation.

It means we renew our faith in the United States and our future.

Resources:

United States COVID-19 Statistics 

This is page provides reliable national and state information about COVID-19. Its interactive graphics and tables are easy to understand. 
*** Testing Data has been removed from this site in last two days. ***

Lost on the Frontline   
This is an interactive, public-facing database that aims to count and honor every US healthcare worker – whether doctors or custodians, nursing home aides or paramedics – who dies after contracting the coronavirus on the job. It is the most comprehensive accounting of US healthcare workers’ deaths in the country.

Playbook For Early Response To High Consequence Emerging Infectious Disease Threats and Biological Incidents 
This document was created in 2016, during the Obama administration, by the National Security Council, with the goal of assisting leaders, “in coordinating a complex U.S. Government response to a high-consequence emerging disease threat anywhere in the world.” It was given to Trump during the transition of administrations. However, Trump and Mitch McConnell denied that such a document existed until 03/2020 when Politico released it.

Trump: Americans Who Died in War Are ‘Losers’ and ‘Suckers’
Jeffrey Goldberg, 09/03/2020, The Atlantic Magazine