If you have not read Ron Suskind’s opinion in the New York Times, 10/30) please do so. It is an informed and thoughtful look at what we may be facing on Election Day and after. There are a few things that we can do to prepare for what is coming.
Stay Informed: Rumors and disinformation are rampant. Reliable information is critical. Uncertainty breeds fear. Fear leads to panic. Panic leads to destruction. Stay informed and be critical of all the memes and screaming headlines. In fact, avoid memes and do not pass on anything that is an emotional spike. Stick to verifiable facts.
Remain Calm: Maintain your routines. A calm mind refreshes the spirit and allows us to view reality more clearly. If you get anxious, turn off the news. As my therapist told me, “You don’t need news 24×7. Turn it off. If something genuinely important happens, you’ll hear about it.” Find something that quiets your mind, mediation, prayer, reading, walking, etc.
Remember Our Goals: Peace, Unity, Looking After the Vulnerable, Victory over Racism and Dictatorship.
Lastly,
Take Heart and Maintain Hope: We are involved in a heroic moment. This chaos offers each of us the unique opportunity to be better than we ever thought that we could be. This time is much larger than any of us, yet our individual efforts will help shape the future. We salute the Greatest Generation for their courage and sacrifice. Now it is our turn to show the future what we are made of.
Though winter will be long, we will not fail.
Have faith in the human spirit and our inherent goodness.
We are at War! Just as certainly as the Greatest Generation was during World War 2, we are now too. Today the war is a shadow war, undeclared, yet just as real. Americans are suffering and dying.
We have been attacked repeatedly, starting in 2015 and continuing until today. Over time, the attacks have become more sophisticated and deadly. All the while, our leader, Donald J Trump has done everything in his power to make us ever more vulnerable to these attacks. We are at war and being led by a traitor.
The Russians have mounted ransomware cyber attacks against hospitals across the nation. These raids lock medical files and online medical services such as diagnostic technology and lab results. Ransoms must be paid to free these files. There is always the danger that there will be another attack or the files have been altered and shared. During the best of times this can be deadly but during a pandemic, this amounts to mass murder. We are vulnerable to cyber attack on many levels including national infrastructure and our elections. The Russians are not dropping bombs on our cities, rather they are launching digital torpedoes into the heart of our American society.
This war is in each of our homes, directed at us individually. During the American Revolution, the Civil War and the World Wars, Americans were targeted with enemy propaganda that they resisted. Today is different. Because we live in an interconnected world the enemy can tailor their propaganda and threats to specific groups and individuals. We are all on the frontline as never before.
To defend ourselves we must vote in overwhelming numbers so that no matter how Trump and the Republicans try to suppress the vote, there remains a clear and decisive defeat of their traitorous gang.
If you have an absentee ballot and for some reason you have not already submitted it, get off your ass and do it now! Do Not Mail It. It Is Too Late. Go to the nearest ballot collection station and drop it off. If you cannot get to a ballot drop off, you can have a friend take it for you. One person can deliver up to 3 other people’s ballots. Or go to the polls on Nov. 3. You can register at the polling station and then vote.
Every vote counts. History will remember.
What else can we do? We can remain calm. We can be patient, knowing that the election results will not be complete on election night. We can resist calling an early winner and arbitrary deadlines, and demand that all votes be counted.
We must stay informed and carefully evaluate what we read and hear. Our enemies, Russia, China, Iran and others are going to try to tear us apart. We must be resolute and united.
Let this be our finest hour, as we remain calm and united, determined to see this fight through to victory. In times of great peril there are great opportunities to become much more than we ever thought was possible. Let us be the best that we can be. History will remember.
I believe that knowledge is the best defense against confusion and hopelessness. Knowledge is also the best weapon when forced to fight back against irrationality and demagoguery. An informed citizenry can successfully defend Democracy and our United States.
In my last blog, Preparing for Political Turmoil, I posted the summary from the Transition integrity Project’s report, Preventing a Disrupted Presidential Election and Transition. (This link is to an offidoc file.) The report is a sobering analysis of what might happen during the election period, then on “Election Night,” and then up to and beyond the Inauguration. The TIP was the effort of a bipartisan group comprised of a variety of people, including those who have served in office, the military, both political parties, campaigns, and political scientists. Using sophisticated gaming techniques, they enacted 4 scenarios to determine what the possible outcomes might be. The scenarios were:
Ambiguous Result – the outcome of the election remained unclear election night and after. Clear Biden Victory – Biden wins outright in the Electoral College and the popular vote. Clear Trump Victory – Trump wins comfortable Electoral College victory and 5% popular vote. Narrow Biden Win – Narrow Biden win, he leads with less than 1% of the popular vote the day after the election and is predicted to win 278 electoral votes.
The report details possible actions taken by both campaigns, their supporters, and the results. It is a valuable read.
But what about if Trump loses the election? What happens to Trumpism and the authoritarian infrastructure that has been built over the last 5 years?
Fear is the mind killer. It is the Tyrant’s most powerful weapon. However, fear is transitory. Being able to anticipate potential events provides stability and resilience. The worse mental state is when we fear the unknown. It is too large to get our arms around and, thus, we are unable to mentally prepare. In such a case, we spiral down becoming more anxious, disorganized, and hopeless.
Preparing for unpleasant possibilities is the first step towards resilient Hope, because you can see both the problem and beyond it.
Below is the report’s analysis.
Appendix C: Will “Trumpism” Survive a Trump Loss?
While it was not squarely in the scope of TIP’s investigation, almost all of the debriefings included some discussion about whether “Trumpism” is likely to survive Trump after he leaves office. President Trump has cultivated and mobilized a significant base; many believe it won’t easily be demobilized after Trump leaves office (“Trumpiness is built in now,” said one participant). There are immediate implications for an incoming Administration.
Many observers expect President Trump to try to extend his norm-disrupting influence after he leaves office through an independent media company or partnerships. Participants predict that in the event of a Biden victory, Trump will attack President Biden early and consistently, blaming all problems in the country on a combination of the stolen election and the incompetence of the Biden administration; the message will be clear, consistent, and relentlessly hammered in: “If only the election hadn’t been stolen from me, everything in the country would be great again.” Such a message could fuel political violence. QAnon could play a role in electing far-right candidates to Congress, providing an anchor for exPresident Trump’s proposals.
A minority view was that once Trump is a “big loser,” he’ll lose face with the GOP base and Republicans will move on. If he tries to look like a martyr, these participants suggest, he may come across as merely pathetic. However, if the pandemic and the economy continue to get worse after the 2020 election, it may become more likely that Trump (or a Trump-like figure) will again be a serious contender for the presidency in 2024.
How should anti-authoritarian interests respond? A number of participants urged Democrats to embrace a new playbook. President Obama’s working assumption was that “the fever would break on the back of electoral defeat,” but this proved to be mistaken; throughout the Obama administration, Republicans refused to compromise or engage in customary negotiations over policy, counting instead on blocking every possible Democratic initiative and waiting for their chance to regain the presidency. These participants cautioned that Democrats should not rely on litigation, moral suasion, or merely hoping that Republicans in Congress or state elected office will “come to their senses.” Instead, they should focus on building more authentic relationships with the left’s base, including by publicly supporting the peaceful protest movement that has emerged since late May, rather than continuing to seek conciliation and compromise with the GOP.
There was near universal agreement that in the event of a Trump loss, the GOP’s strategy will be to create trouble for the incoming Biden administration, in order to regain ground in 2022 and retake the White House in 2024. GOP activists (possibly encouraged by Trump himself and by far-right media) may seek to create ongoing street-level chaos and conflict. Meanwhile, GOP party leaders will likely focus on post-census redistricting. Senate Republicans are also likely to try to block one or more Biden cabinet or court nominees as a show of political nerve. If the GOP holds the Senate, even more dramatic blocking actions will be contemplated, tempting the Biden Administration to continue President Trump’s approach of appointing “acting” appointees, thus institutionalizing the nullification of the “advise and consent” role of the Senate in executive branch appointments.
Republicans will likely also push hard on judicial nominations, trying to seat as many nominees as possible before President Trump leaves office. This could potentially include a Supreme Court nomination, which would further undermine the legitimacy of the Court in the eyes of many Democrats and heighten demands from the left for “court packing.” Conversely, it is also possible that if the GOP holds the Senate, Majority Leader McConnell could refuse to hold any votes on any Biden court nominees, allowing the vacancies to pile up until a Republican president is again in place to make the appointments.
Some exercise participants noted, however, that there are conflicting interests for the GOP and, in particular, for Republicans running in 2022 in states where moderates have an advantage, as well as for Republican leaders with Presidential ambitions for 2024. Some GOP presidential hopefuls might define their candidacy as anti-Trump (Rubio, Johnson, Toomey), while some Republican Governors might quickly shift back to state priorities such as COVID-19. An early defining battle between approaches will likely take place over choosing the party chair.
TIP offers these preliminary recommendations based on the input from participants in the scenario planning exercises:
• There was no agreement among participants in the scenario planning exercises about what specific actions should be taken with regard to pursuing investigations and possible charges against President Trump and members of his Administration. A new Administration, in partnership with a broad range of stakeholders, could consider a range of options including those used by other countries, such as truth and reconciliation commissions.
• One question is whether to continue the tradition of offering legal immunity or pardons to Trump and his family. There was a lively debate about whether any short-term gain from this diplomatic effort was worth a longer-term risk that corrupt or criminal practices would continue. This may come up during the transition itself, if Trump decides to negotiate an “exit package” for himself.
• More broadly, there needs to be a robust, intentional, and specific strategy to challenge the white supremacist and extremist networks that enabled Trump’s rise to power and were in turn enabled by Trump’s administration. This base will not automatically demobilize if and when Trump leaves office, and it is inimical to the kind of pluralist democracy the founders intended.
• Finally, it is imperative that Congress take decisive action to limit executive power, as happened with in the wake of President Nixon’s abuses of power in the early 1970s. One of the key findings of these scenario exercises is the extraordinary degree of de facto power that a President unbounded by norms or human decency can wield. No president should be able to use the executive branch to settle political scores, damage perceived adversaries, or pursue personal financial gain.
Principles of political decency that had been maintained through norms will have to be codified through law.
Minneapolis has a strong neighborhood program that encourages areas to organize as local non-partisan political and social units. Over the years these neighborhood associations have evolved to preform many functions, everything from crime watch, to celebrating National Night Out, to Porchfest where musical neighbors perform on their porches through out the neighborhood. They are also active in discussing city planning that may impact their communities. These discussions have included zoning, routing traffic, expansion of green-ways, property taxes, schools, and parks.
I have lived in the Kingfield neighborhood for decades. Kingfield has an energetic association actively supported by our community. It’s a great place to live.
Years ago, I inherited the position as a block leader. I have always preferred block facilitator. The previous leader had been excellent and she set a high standard for me. In the process of being the block facilitator I’ve had the opportunity to interface with numerous city departments, in particular the police. I took a 13 week block leader training course that familiarized me with the functions of the police, fire department, and emergency medical teams.
Typically, my duties are simple. Alert my block to winter weather regulations, promote and set up National Night Out, pass on crime alerts or city messages, and occasionally news that I think our block might be interested in. As a rule, I do not promote or distribute what might be considered political. However, it’s no longer possible for me to do that, considering the Pandemic, peaceful George Floyd demonstrations demanding police accountability and reform, the public unrest stoked by long simmering anger and racism, white nationalist agent provocateurs, and the criminal behavior of Trump and his Administration.
Minneapolis’s neighborhoods are under great stress. I know that my neighbors are worried about what the future holds for them and our city.
Today, I sent two emails to my block. One dealing with Emergency Preparedness and the disruption to daily life due to the weather. This is an annual email alerting people to the potential of a hard winter and days where we might be home bound. This year there is also the potential for non-weather disruptions. (Links to the resources are below.)
The second email concerns preparing for political chaos. The email is based on an August report by the Transition Integrity Project, a bipartisan group who has looked closely at possible scenarios during the election and afterwards. The following is the body of my email.
“This August, a report was issued by the Transition Integrity Project. I’ve included their Executive Summary below and attached the full report, should you want to read the entire thing.
Just as we need to prepare for the physical consequences of a disruption, natural or otherwise, it is also critical that we prepare ourselves mentally and emotionally. We are in a unique time of our nation and the world. It is up to each one of us to be prepared to act to defend our nation and our democracy. I wish that this wasn’t true, but it is. All of us are called to do our duty as citizens. There won’t be another chance. Stand tall and make your children and grandchildren proud.
Les
What is the Transition Integrity Project? This is from the report.”
About the Transition Integrity Project
The Transition Integrity Project (TIP)1 was launched in late 2019 out of concern that the Trump Administration may seek to manipulate, ignore, undermine or disrupt the 2020 presidential election and transition process. TIP takes no position on how Americans should cast their votes, or on the likely winner of the upcoming election; either major party candidate could prevail at the polls in November without resorting to “dirty tricks.” However, the administration of President Donald Trump has steadily undermined core norms of democracy and the rule of law and embraced numerous corrupt and authoritarian practices. This presents a profound challenge for those – from either party – who are committed to ensuring free and fair elections, peaceful transitions of power, and stable administrative continuity in the United States.
The American people have the right to choose their next president without intimidation or interference in the normal electoral process. Believers in democracy and the rule of law should therefore be prepared to take action to ensure that the results of the 2020 presidential election reflect the will of the American people. Like many authoritarian leaders, President Trump has begun to lay the groundwork for potentially ignoring or disrupting the voting process, by claiming, for instance, that any mail-in ballots will be fraudulent and that his opponents will seek to have non-citizens vote through fraud. Similarly, he has frequently expressed the view that he is entitled to additional time in office and that his opponents are seeking to steal the election. If President Trump’s future actions violate long-standing legal and ethical norms relating to presidential elections, there is also a risk that they will push other actors, including, potentially, some in the Democratic Party, to similarly engage in practices that depart from traditional rule of law norms, out of perceived self-defense.
The goal of TIP is to highlight these various electoral and transition-related risks and make recommendations to all actors, individual and institutional, who share a commitment to democracy and the rule of law. The recommendations shared here reflect input from both Republicans and Democrats committed to these values. However, because the primary threat to the integrity of the election and transition appears to come from the Trump Administration, most of the recommendations in this memo focus on how actors committed to the rule of law can restrain or counter anti-democratic actions the Trump Administration and its supporters may take in connection with the 2020 election.
That TIP’s concerns are widely shared is reflected in the media attention which this project has already begun to garner. (For a list of articles as of late July 2020, see Appendix A.)
Executive Summary
Preventing a Disrupted Presidential Election and Transition, August 3, 2020
In June 2020 the Transition Integrity Project (TIP) convened a bipartisan group of over 100 current and former senior government and campaign leaders and other experts in a series of 2020 election crisis scenario planning exercises. The results of all four table-top exercises were alarming. We assess with a high degree of likelihood that November’s elections will be marked by a chaotic legal and political landscape. We also assess that the President Trump is likely to contest the result by both legal and extra-legal means, in an attempt to hold onto power. Recent events, including the President’s own unwillingness to commit to abiding by the results of the election, the Attorney General’s embrace of the President’s groundless electoral fraud claims, and the unprecedented deployment of federal agents to put down leftwing protests, underscore the extreme lengths to which President Trump may be willing to go in order to stay in office.
In this report, TIP explains the basis for our assessment. Our findings are bolstered by the historical experience of Bush v. Gore (2000) and other U.S. electoral dysfunctions. The closest analogy may be the election of 1876, a time of extreme partisanship and rampant disenfranchisement, where multiple states proffered competing slates of electors, and the election was only resolved through a grand political bargain days before Inauguration—one that traded an end to Reconstruction for electoral peace and resulted in a century of Jim Crow, leaving deep wounds that are far from healed today.
Among the findings we highlight in the report:
• The concept of “election night,” is no longer accurate and indeed is dangerous. We face a period of contestation stretching from the first day a ballot is cast in mid-September until January 20. The winner may not, and we assess likely will not, be known on “election night” as officials count mail-in ballots. This period of uncertainty provides opportunities for an unscrupulous candidate to cast doubt on the legitimacy of the process and to set up an unprecedented assault on the outcome. Campaigns, parties, the press and the public must be educated to adjust expectations starting immediately.
• A determined campaign has opportunity to contest the election into January 2021. We anticipate lawsuits, divergent media narratives, attempts to stop the counting of ballots, and protests drawing people from both sides. President Trump, the incumbent, will very likely use the executive branch to aid his campaign strategy, including through the Department of Justice. We assess that there is a chance the president will attempt to convince legislatures and/or governors to take actions – including illegal actions – to defy the popular vote. Federal laws provide little guidance for how Congress should resolve irregularities when they convene in a Joint Session on January 6, 2021. Of particular concern is how the military would respond in the context of uncertain election results. Here recent evidence offers some reassurance, but it is inconclusive.
• The administrative transition process itself may be highly disrupted. Participants in our exercises of all backgrounds and ideologies believed that Trump would prioritize personal gain and self-protection over ensuring an orderly administrative handoff to his successor. Trump may use pardons to thwart future criminal prosecution, arrange business deals with foreign governments that benefit him financially, attempt to bribe and silence associates, declassify sensitive documents, and attempt to divert federal funds to his own businesses.
These risks can be mitigated; the worst outcomes of the exercises are far from a certainty. The purpose of this report is not to frighten, but to spur all stakeholders to action. Our legal rules and political norms don’t work unless people are prepared to defend them and to speak out when others violate them. It is incumbent upon elected officials, civil society leaders, and the press to challenge authoritarian actions in the courts, in the media, and in the streets through peaceful protest. Specific recommendations include:
• Plan for a contested election. If there is a crisis, events will unfold quickly, and sleep-deprived leaders will be asked to make consequential decisions quickly. Thinking through options now will help to ensure better decisions. Approach this as a political battle, not just a legal battle. In the event of electoral contestation, sustained political mobilization will likely be crucial for ensuring transition integrity. Dedicated staff and resources need to be in place at least through the end of January.
• Focus on readiness in the states, providing political support for a complete and accurate count. Governors, Secretaries of State, Attorneys General and Legislatures can communicate and reinforce laws and norms and be ready to confront irregularities. Election officials will need political and public support to see the process through to completion.
• Address the two biggest threats head on: lies about “voter fraud” and escalating violence. Voting fraud is virtually non-existent, but Trump lies about it to create a narrative designed to politically mobilize his base and to create the basis for contesting the results should he lose. The potential for violent conflict is high, particularly since Trump encourages his supporters to take up arms.
• Anticipate a rocky administrative transition. Transition teams will likely need to do two things simultaneously: defend against Trump’s reckless actions on his way out of office; and find creative solutions to ensure landing teams are able to access the information and resources they need to begin to prepare for governing.
There are 210,000 Americans dead from the Coronavirus and 7,400,000 have tested positive. The President of the United States has the virus and is in Walter Reed Hospital. His wife, several close associates, and number of legislators have tested positive as have several state governors.
Friday night, Rachel Maddow opened her show with a statement emphasizing that it is important to separate Trump’s political actions, as terrible as they have been, from Trump the human being. She stressed that Trump’s political decisions should be dealt with politically, by voting. On the other hand, she stressed the importance that we express our humanity and show concern for his well-being and his family. It was an amazing statement unlike the common “get well soon” offerings made by everyone else.
As I began writing this blog, I made several attempts to do as Rachel suggested. But I cannot, because if I did, I would be lying. I do not wish that Trump die. I do not wish death on anyone, even him. Yet, I have no sympathy for him. I do not care if he, as an individual, lives or dies. He brought it on himself. As he did for millions of Americans.
I feel the same way for all those elected officials who promoted Trump’s dangerous statements and behavior. They ignored scientific evidence and the advice of health experts. Trump and these officials made personal decisions that led to deadly political actions. After the election, provided it has not been stolen through voter suppression and intimidation, Trump and all those officials who have injured and killed Americans, must face the legal consequences of their actions.
Today is day three since Trump went into the hospital. And still his condition is a mystery. Can he function in his official capacity? What are the current arrangements for running the government while he is in the hospital? Is he genuinely sick?
We are unable to trust anything said by the White House or anyone in the Administration. After five years of blatant lying, disinformation, and hiding the truth there is no reason why we should believe them now. I know that I do not.
Trump’s official spokes people paint a positive picture. A source at Walter Reed was more concerned and warned that Trump’s immediate recovery was questionable. Just how sick is he? What machinations are going on in the background? These are legitimate concerns.
On October 2, 1919, President Woodrow Wilson suffered a serious stroke that paralyzed his left side and blinded him in his left eye. He remained bedridden for two months and then spent the rest of his term in a wheelchair, through the election and the inauguration of Warren G. Harding on March 4th, 1921. During those 17 months, Wilson’s cognitive abilities deteriorated. The American people were completely unaware that the President of the United States was disabled and only learned of it when Wilson died in 1924.
The President’s wife, First Lady Edith Wilson, stepped in to act as gatekeeper and determine what issues would go to the President. She described her role as, “I studied every paper sent from the different Secretaries or Senators and tried to digest and present in tabloid form the things that, despite my vigilance, had to go to the President. I, myself, never made a single decision regarding the disposition of public affairs. The only decision that was mine was what was important and what was not, and the very important decision of when to present matters to my husband.”
While Mrs. Wilson never made any direct decisions concerning public policy, deciding what went to the President and how she summarized it impacted what got done and how. I’m unclear as to her relationship with Senators and the Wilson Administration, but it would not be uncommon that various factions, promoting their own agendas, had an effect on what was seen and decided.
Fast forward to today. The past four chaotic years have provided plentiful evidence that the White House and the Administration are untrustworthy. They have continuously put their welfare and the power of the Republican Party before what is best for the American people and our Democracy. As the election approaches, they rush voter suppression measures into place, making a blatant grab for power. They are pushing the nomination and confirmation of Judge Amy Coney Barrett to a position on the Supreme Court. She is a Judge that despises Roe v Wade, America Care Act, LGBT rights, and the separation of church and state; contrary to the will of most Americans.
With Trump in the hospital and a Republican controlled government that considers lying an acceptable form of behavior, there is good reasons to be very skeptical. Could Trump’s illness be just one more chaotic episode designed to take our eyes off the substantive news concerning his racism, his murderous response to the pandemic, his illegal financial dealings and tax fraud, his disrespect for our military, his destruction of our economy, and a myriad of other issues?
Trump has been backed into a corner. Joe Biden is making gains with Trump voters. Trump’s childish behavior during the first presidential debate hurt him. A second debate would be a disaster. What better way to avoid debating while hijacking the news media and national attention with a battle with COVID?
Once again Trump has inserted, confusion, fear, and uncertainty into our lives. I think that Trump is playing us with, “You don’t kick someone when they’re down.” This time, yes, we do.
I got my absentee ballot yesterday afternoon, filled it out last night, and took it to my post office this morning. My day is a success.
If you’re voting by mail, don’t delay. Before Trump sabotaged the postal service it took 3 days to mail a letter and have it received anywhere else in the Twin Cities area. Now it is 6 days at a minimum. Who knows what it will be like later on.
I am extremely lucky to live in Minnesota with its active political culture. Minnesotans vote. In 2018, of the 10 US districts with the highest voter turnout, Minnesota had 3 and I live in one, District 5 which always has high voter participation. Minnesota’s Primary in August had the highest poll numbers in over 50 years.
This is the first time in my life that I won’t stand in a line waiting to vote. I consider voting a sacred act. It’s a moment when I feel a special closeness to my fellow Minnesotans; my fellow Americans. Typically, November 3rd, is wet and cold, occasionally bitterly so. Yet, you would have found me patiently standing in a long line, chatting with my neighbors. Around me were hundreds of people, quietly going about their business, fulfilling their most important duty as a citizen of the United States. Voting. This year, I’ll miss the that sacred union. But it won’t stop me from doing my duty.
I know that Minnesota is not perfect. It shares the same history of bloodshed, intolerance, and exploitation as the rest of the US. There is much work to be done here. But, I’m hopeful because Minnesota’s history also contains a tradition of progressive ideals that value people above profit, concern for others, and conserving Nature, protecting it from destruction. Sometimes we loose our way but, eventually, we come back on course.
Once again, it is time to get back on course. However, returning to the old normal is impossible. We must go beyond simply repairing the damage that has been done. Paradoxically, the destruction caused by Trump and his fellow traitors provides us a unique opportunity to build a newer, better United States. We can address the curse of racism, rampant greed and corruption, and the wanton desecration of our planet.
Also, let us not forget the over 205,000 Americans who have died because of Trump and his Administration’s callus disregard for the safety of the American people. Remember the dead when you vote.
Make it clear to those who are working hard to rob us of our rights, that Democracy Lives and the Old Ways Are Dying.
